This winter has been one of the warmest the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta has ever seen. In Bethel, it ranks as the sixth mildest winter in over a century, based on 101 years of climate records from the National Weather Service.
Rick Thoman, a climate expert from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, points out something striking: seven of the 10 warmest winters in Bethel have happened since 2001. Compared to the 1960s, the average winter temperature has gone up by about 10 degrees.
“When Elders talk about how winters used to be much colder, the science backs them up,” Thoman said.
This year, the average temperature in Bethel has hovered around 17 degrees Fahrenheit — roughly 7 degrees warmer than the usual December-to-February average.
It’s not just Bethel feeling the heat. Throughout the Y-K Delta, similar trends are happening. While not every community has long-term weather data, experts say Bethel’s climate patterns generally reflect the region as a whole.
Along with warmer temperatures, there’s been far less snow than normal, especially early in the season. While the lower Y-K Delta has seen more snow than other parts of the state, it’s still well below average. In places like the Bristol Bay region and upper Kuskokwim Valley, some areas have almost no snow cover at all.
The lack of snow brings some serious risks. With less snowpack to keep things moist, there’s a higher chance of early-season wildfires. In fact, the National Interagency Fire Center has already predicted above-normal wildfire danger for much of southern Alaska through June.
But there might be a small silver lining. Thoman explains that without a thick layer of snow to insulate the ground, the frozen earth could actually stay frozen longer. That could slow down the thawing of permafrost — a process driven by climate change — and give the region a bit of a break from the rapid changes happening underground.
For now, the forecast shows scattered snow showers and daytime temperatures ranging from the mid-20s to mid-30s Fahrenheit in Bethel and nearby areas. Even with warmer-than-usual weather, there’s still a bit of winter left to go.
